By Mark Mazzetti and Choe Sang-Hun Published: September 9, 2008
WASHINGTON: The North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is seriously ill and might have suffered a stroke weeks ago, an American intelligence official in Washington said Tuesday, after Kim failed to attend an unexpectedly small-scale celebration of his country's 60th anniversary.
The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that the exact status of the North Korean's health was unclear, but that it did not seem Kim was on the verge of death.
Kim's health is the focus of intense attention among governments and security experts. He leads one of the world's most isolated and unpredictable regimes, one with a nuclear weapons program that is the focus of international concern.
Kim, 66, has not missed any of the 10 previous military or militia parades staged for major party, military and state anniversaries, in which columns of armored vehicles and rocket launchers rumbled through the capital Pyongyang's main plaza as legions of goose-stepping soldiers saluted him.
But for the 60th anniversary — a deeply significant milestone in North Korea — there was only a parade by militia groups in charge of civil defense, which Kim did not attend, said a spokesman at Seoul's main spy agency, the National Intelligence Service.
There has been speculation about Kim's condition for some time, the American official in Washington said, but his absence at the celebration is evidence that he remains in serious condition.
However, the official said, there are few indications that North Korean officials are stepping up preparations for a transfer of authority.
South Korea's largest daily, Chosun Ilbo, reported Tuesday that Kim collapsed on Aug. 22, citing an unidentified South Korean diplomat in Beijing. The Seoul government could not confirm the report. The South Korean intelligence agency said it was trying to confirm reports of Kim's ill health.
The North's state-run media have not reported any public appearance by Kim since mid-August, and speculation was already swirling that he might be in ill health. According to South Korea's intelligence service, Kim has chronic heart disease and diabetes.
Since North Korea was founded in 1948 under Soviet guardianship, it has had only two leaders: Kim Il-sung, and after his death in 1994, his son, Kim Jong-il, the first and only hereditary leader in the Communist world. Kim has three sons. None has emerged as heir-apparent and experts on North Korea are widely divided who will succeed the president.
A second American official briefed on intelligence about Kim's health expressed concern that there did not appear to be a clear plan to transfer power in the event of his death.
"There is no succession track, which could lead to infighting and chaos," he said.
North Korea experts in Seoul cautioned that Kim has often disappeared from public view for extended periods, using the ensuing rumors and uncertainty to keep the outside world at bay.
"Kim Jong-il has a history of keeping away from public view when he had something important to decide and the North's external relations worsened," said Koh Yu-hwan, a longtime North Korea observer at Seoul's Dongkuk University.
Kim Keun Sik, a North Korea expert in Kyungnam University in South Korea, said: "The nuclear talks are in a stalemate. Tensions with the United States are deepening. Kim knew that the world was watching whether he would show up today. For him, this may be a perfect chance to bring world attention to him."
In a joint statement of loyalty to Kim on Tuesday, the North's key ruling organs — including the Workers' Party, the cabinet and the military — praised him for building a "powerful war deterrent that can safeguard the nation's survival."
"If the American imperialists dare ignite the flames of war, we will mobilize all our powerful potentials to mercilessly punish the invaders and win decisively in our great showdown against the United States," said the statement, carried by the North's official news agency, KCNA.
Such strident pronouncements have become more common in the North's official rhetoric in recent weeks.
When tensions with the United States increase, the government redoubles its efforts to inspire fears of an American invasion. Such propaganda carries particular urgency because the North feeds 20 percent of its 23 million people with food aid provided by the United States, which its official media regularly calls "our sworn enemy."
Efforts to halt the North's nuclear weapons efforts have recently stalled. The North had agreed to abandon its nuclear weapons programs in return for economic and political rewards from the United States and its allies. North Korea began disabling its Soviet-era nuclear plant in Yongbyon, north of Pyongyang, last November, in a major diplomatic victory for the Bush administration.
But it stopped the work in August, angry that Washington had not removed it from a terrorism blacklist. The United States said North Korea must first agree to a comprehensive inspection program to reveal whether it is hiding any nuclear assets.
